PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
pkmgoh92yen4uTheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186
Record (consensus markets)no settled market91% (654–64, n=718)95% (136–7, n=143)95% (456–22, n=478)
Consensus PnL—$67K$476K-$138K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #771PM monthly #596was PM monthly #149was PM monthly #584
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position89% (42 of 47 open)75% (3 of 4 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • Soccer +32 pts n=74, ROI +25%
  • MLB +45 pts n=10, ROI +35%
  • Esports +31 pts n=21, ROI +27%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic———Soccer ±0 pts, n=408
Settled positions, side won—94% of 613 at avg 90¢, ROI +3%99% of 147 at avg 66¢, ROI +37%98% of 448 at avg 98¢, ROI 0%
Entries under 30¢—4% (won 26% of 27)0%0% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢—2% (won 57% of 14)16% (won 96% of 23)0% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢—5% (won 80% of 30)44% (won 100% of 64)0% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 70¢ and up—88% (won 99% of 542)41% (won 100% of 60)99% (won 98% of 445)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketpkmgoh92yen4uTheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard0x2Cc8Cc54F50DbB45fE346612821CA93B6E93262B-1780571709186
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $940Yes $5.4K—
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $3.8KNo $91—