PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
dribblingbanana69manekinekoVitaaalyaKangta8585
Record (consensus markets)no settled market87% (337–52, n=389)66% (72–37, n=109)67% (1055–511, n=1566)
Consensus PnL—$76K$76K$350K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #707Hand-pickedHand-pickedwas PM monthly #863
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position75% (9 of 12 open)71% (5 of 7 open)100% (2 of 2 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Politics −2 pts, n=55—College Basketball −4 pts, n=55
Settled positions, side won—86% of 444 at avg 85¢, ROI +1%62% of 233 at avg 54¢, ROI +1%67% of 2102 at avg 58¢, ROI +8%
Entries under 30¢—8% (won 9% of 34)33% (won 21% of 76)4% (won 26% of 81)
Entries 30–50¢—4% (won 35% of 17)10% (won 26% of 23)24% (won 53% of 507)
Entries 50–70¢—5% (won 63% of 24)15% (won 76% of 34)50% (won 70% of 1052)
Entries 70¢ and up—83% (won 97% of 369)43% (won 97% of 100)22% (won 84% of 462)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketdribblingbanana69manekinekoVitaaalyaKangta8585
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $21KNo $860—
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
same side · consensus No
—No $3.6KNo $1.4K—