← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| denizz | lava-lava | ndb1 | RanaAmariPredicts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 70% (207–87, n=294) | 51% (210–202, n=412) | 58% (419–300, n=719) | no settled market |
| Consensus PnL | $2.3M | $1.2M | $4.7M | — |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #151 | PM monthly #108 | PM monthly #157 | PM monthly #908 |
| Sides with the consensus | 93% (25 of 27 open) | 63% (38 of 60 open) | 70% (57 of 81 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| not computed yet |
| Weakest topic | Politics −2 pts, n=16 | Finance −17 pts, n=11 | NFL −8 pts, n=71 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 245 at avg 59¢, ROI +7% | 49% of 276 at avg 45¢, ROI +2% | 54% of 496 at avg 57¢, ROI +1% | — |
| Entries under 30¢ | 26% (won 6% of 63) | 34% (won 9% of 93) | 19% (won 10% of 96) | — |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 57% of 30) | 23% (won 48% of 64) | 21% (won 35% of 105) | — |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 13% (won 66% of 32) | 20% (won 67% of 54) | 27% (won 54% of 132) | — |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 49% (won 96% of 120) | 24% (won 92% of 65) | 33% (won 91% of 163) | — |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.