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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BigMackyG | calculate10 | Dr.mett | Wintermelongcr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 31% (119–269, n=388) | 64% (333–189, n=522) | 88% (358–51, n=409) | 93% (56–4, n=60) |
| Consensus PnL | $61K | $214K | $13K | -$9.2K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #441 | PM monthly #236 | Hand-picked | PM monthly #598 |
| Sides with the consensus | 45% (10 of 22 open) | no open consensus position | 92% (12 of 13 open) | 100% (3 of 3 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | |
| Weakest topic | — | — | Crypto −7 pts, n=21 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 77% of 153 at avg 39¢, ROI +25% | 100% of 292 at avg 80¢, ROI +15% | 88% of 1202 at avg 86¢, ROI +2% | 100% of 6 at avg 79¢, ROI −65% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 36% (won 51% of 55) | 1% (won 100% of 2) | 6% (won 12% of 75) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 26% (won 90% of 40) | 8% (won 100% of 24) | 4% (won 38% of 50) | 17% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 27% (won 90% of 41) | 16% (won 100% of 47) | 5% (won 60% of 60) | 0% |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 100% of 17) | 75% (won 100% of 219) | 85% (won 97% of 1017) | 83% (won 100% of 5) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BigMackyG | calculate10 | Dr.mett | Wintermelongcr |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? same side · consensus No | No $13K | — | No $425 | — |