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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
beachboy4BreakTheBankjoseph00677omnibus-076daa
Record (consensus markets)no settled market45% (546–663, n=1209)53% (10–9, n=19)50% (14548–14689, n=29237)
Consensus PnL—$11.2M$5.6M$3.0M
Tracked as—PM monthly #2PM monthly #1PM monthly #60
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position71% (39 of 55 open)no open consensus position61% (109 of 180 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won—97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%92% of 11470 at avg 61¢, ROI +32%
Entries under 30¢—10% (won 81% of 57)12% (won 0% of 2)8% (won 60% of 899)
Entries 30–50¢—36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 0% of 1)21% (won 87% of 2444)
Entries 50–70¢—35% (won 99% of 196)65% (won 73% of 11)39% (won 95% of 4418)
Entries 70¢ and up—19% (won 100% of 109)18% (won 67% of 3)32% (won 99% of 3709)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

14 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketbeachboy4BreakTheBankjoseph00677omnibus-076daa
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $55K—Yes $59
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $19K—Yes $24
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $11K—Yes $5
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $795—Yes $149
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $376K—Yes $80K
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $240K—Yes $121
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $167K—Yes $2.4K
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $20K—Yes $65K
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $46K—Yes $147
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $21K—Yes $2.1K
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $21K—Yes $113
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $15K—Yes $215
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $5.4K—Yes $144
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $3.1K—Yes $76
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
same side · consensus No
—Yes $3.1K—Yes $3
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $2.6K—Yes $69
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $1.0K—Yes $59
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $28—Yes $41