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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

bakedbeanburrito: no tracked trader by that name or wallet.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankndb1sainttroplay
Record (consensus markets)45% (546–663, n=1209)66% (870–454, n=1324)no settled market
Consensus PnL$11.2M$4.2M—
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #12—
Sides with the consensus68% (39 of 57 open)71% (25 of 35 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—NFL −10 pts, n=132—
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)0%
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 5 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankndb1sainttroplay
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $3.1KNo $2.0M—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $84No $1.5M—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $11KYes $818K—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $235KYes $111—
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $167KNo $202—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $240KYes $501K—
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $55KNo $241K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.4KNo $7.4K—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $10No $161—