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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Tysha | yen4u | TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | tradecraft | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 91% (654–64, n=718) | 95% (136–7, n=143) | 49% (2015–2122, n=4137) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $67K | $476K | $912K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #789 | PM monthly #596 | was PM monthly #149 | PM monthly #293 |
| Sides with the consensus | 61% (22 of 36 open) | 89% (42 of 47 open) | 75% (3 of 4 open) | 40% (4 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 94% of 613 at avg 90¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 147 at avg 66¢, ROI +37% | 57% of 2284 at avg 50¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 4% (won 26% of 27) | 0% | 31% (won 10% of 707) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 2% (won 57% of 14) | 16% (won 96% of 23) | 18% (won 47% of 401) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 5% (won 80% of 30) | 44% (won 100% of 64) | 19% (won 77% of 426) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 88% (won 99% of 542) | 41% (won 100% of 60) | 33% (won 96% of 750) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Tysha | yen4u | TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | tradecraft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | No $940 | Yes $5.4K | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | Yes $3.8K | No $91 | — |