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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Johnlocke33 | penguin1125 | 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704 | PatienceCapital | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 47% (118–133, n=251) | 80% (992–253, n=1245) | 47% (40–46, n=86) |
| Consensus PnL | — | -$29K | $336K | $475K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #292 | PM monthly #721 | was PM monthly #979 | was PM monthly #269 |
| Sides with the consensus | 11% (1 of 9 open) | no open consensus position | 88% (43 of 49 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet | |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | Politics −30 pts, n=14 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 76% of 156 at avg 53¢, ROI +23% | 91% of 1339 at avg 70¢, ROI +5% | 84% of 44 at avg 43¢, ROI +45% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 9% (won 57% of 14) | 11% (won 60% of 149) | 14% (won 33% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 37% (won 68% of 57) | 12% (won 85% of 165) | 39% (won 88% of 17) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 38% (won 83% of 60) | 14% (won 93% of 192) | 48% (won 95% of 21) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 16% (won 88% of 25) | 62% (won 97% of 833) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Johnlocke33 | penguin1125 | 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704 | PatienceCapital |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $197 | — | Yes $1.7K | — |