PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Homeless26beachboy4BreakTheBankomnibus-076daa
Record (consensus markets)no settled market69% (43–19, n=62)45% (502–616, n=1118)50% (13367–13520, n=26887)
Consensus PnL—$5.8M$11.8M$3.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #802was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1PM monthly #17
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position100% (2 of 2 open)70% (23 of 33 open)73% (16 of 22 open)
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=121, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=72, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=276, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—NBA −6 pts, n=91——
Settled positions, side won91% of 11 at avg 34¢, ROI +44%57% of 211 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 515 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%91% of 10208 at avg 60¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢55% (won 100% of 6)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 85% of 53)8% (won 58% of 840)
Entries 30–50¢18% (won 100% of 2)29% (won 56% of 62)35% (won 98% of 181)21% (won 86% of 2168)
Entries 50–70¢18% (won 100% of 2)54% (won 52% of 114)34% (won 99% of 176)38% (won 94% of 3916)
Entries 70¢ and up9% (won 0% of 1)14% (won 86% of 29)20% (won 100% of 105)32% (won 99% of 3284)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketHomeless26beachboy4BreakTheBankomnibus-076daa
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $252KYes $318