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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| DiscretionTrade | BreakTheBank | surfandturf | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 42% (24–33, n=57) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 46% (131–154, n=285) |
| Consensus PnL | $13K | $10.6M | $4.1M | $19.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #877 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #715 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 90% (147 of 164 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | MMA −16 pts, n=26 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 |
| Settled positions, side won | 40% of 62 at avg 47¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 21% (won 8% of 13) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 0% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 21% (won 15% of 13) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 42% (won 46% of 565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 48% (won 60% of 30) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 57% (won 51% of 766) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 10% (won 67% of 6) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 0% (won 100% of 4) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.