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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Contestable-Parfait | melganis | qiu3 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 61% (30–19, n=49) | 79% (1034–278, n=1312) | 89% (8–1, n=9) | 67% (469–231, n=700) |
| Consensus PnL | $8.3K | $56K | $32K | $10.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #117 | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #573 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (78 of 107 open) | 71% (29 of 41 open) | no open consensus position | 76% (53 of 70 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | Crypto −2 pts, n=71 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 71% of 14 at avg 64¢, ROI −13% | 74% of 1660 at avg 69¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 43 at avg 57¢, ROI +37% | 97% of 471 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 29% (won 0% of 4) | 20% (won 7% of 324) | 5% (won 100% of 2) | 11% (won 87% of 52) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 14% (won 100% of 2) | 6% (won 41% of 99) | 26% (won 91% of 11) | 34% (won 98% of 162) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 8% (won 70% of 125) | 56% (won 100% of 24) | 33% (won 99% of 154) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 57% (won 100% of 8) | 67% (won 97% of 1112) | 14% (won 100% of 6) | 22% (won 100% of 103) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
13 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.