PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market64% (88–49, n=137)47% (40–46, n=86)64% (179–99, n=278)
Consensus PnL—$61K$475K$100K
Tracked asPM monthly #497PM monthly #309was PM monthly #269Hand-picked
Sides with the consensus36% (12 of 33 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position100% (8 of 8 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +39 pts n=57, ROI +32%
  • Soccer +23 pts n=45, ROI +3%
  • Tennis +25 pts n=12, ROI +23%
  • Soccer +46 pts n=24, ROI +43%
  • NBA +44 pts n=17, ROI +51%
Weakest topic———Elections ±0 pts, n=101
Settled positions, side won—79% of 120 at avg 46¢, ROI +20%84% of 44 at avg 43¢, ROI +45%65% of 354 at avg 63¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢—12% (won 36% of 14)14% (won 33% of 6)30% (won 10% of 106)
Entries 30–50¢—33% (won 72% of 39)39% (won 88% of 17)6% (won 32% of 22)
Entries 50–70¢—55% (won 92% of 66)48% (won 95% of 21)6% (won 57% of 23)
Entries 70¢ and up—1% (won 100% of 1)0%57% (won 98% of 203)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.