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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
35066FE58febeachboy4BreakTheBank0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)43% (494–658, n=1152)68% (43–20, n=63)45% (542–652, n=1194)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL$38K$5.8M$10.6M$19.1M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #996was PM monthly #24PM monthly #1was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensus67% (16 of 24 open)100% (2 of 2 open)90% (149 of 165 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicGeopolitics −27 pts, n=14NBA −6 pts, n=93—College Basketball −12 pts, n=174
Settled positions, side won41% of 923 at avg 41¢, ROI 0%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢52% (won 3% of 483)3% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 82% of 56)0% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢5% (won 35% of 48)30% (won 57% of 63)36% (won 98% of 198)42% (won 46% of 565)
Entries 50–70¢6% (won 57% of 54)54% (won 51% of 115)35% (won 99% of 191)57% (won 51% of 766)
Entries 70¢ and up37% (won 94% of 338)14% (won 86% of 29)19% (won 100% of 107)0% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.