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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| supersmard | manekineko | Vitaaalya | BoomLaLa | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 62% (37–23, n=60) | 87% (337–52, n=389) | 66% (72–37, n=109) | 66% (5377–2808, n=8185) |
| Consensus PnL | $80K | $76K | $76K | $644K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #368 | Hand-picked | Hand-picked | PM monthly #711 |
| Sides with the consensus | 39% (7 of 18 open) | 75% (9 of 12 open) | 71% (5 of 7 open) | 50% (3 of 6 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | Politics −2 pts, n=55 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 73% of 60 at avg 44¢, ROI +18% | 86% of 444 at avg 85¢, ROI +1% | 62% of 233 at avg 54¢, ROI +1% | 85% of 4167 at avg 58¢, ROI +18% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 32% (won 37% of 19) | 8% (won 9% of 34) | 33% (won 21% of 76) | 7% (won 34% of 290) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 73% of 15) | 4% (won 35% of 17) | 10% (won 26% of 23) | 35% (won 78% of 1465) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 100% of 19) | 5% (won 63% of 24) | 15% (won 76% of 34) | 27% (won 92% of 1130) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 12% (won 100% of 7) | 83% (won 97% of 369) | 43% (won 97% of 100) | 31% (won 98% of 1282) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | supersmard | manekineko | Vitaaalya | BoomLaLa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $21K | No $860 | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? same side · consensus No | — | No $3.6K | No $1.4K | — |