No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #742 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #742
Record (90 d)
45/148 · 30%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?No $8.9K · now 88¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?No $354 · now 22¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Dejan Šoškić win the next Serbia presidential election?Yes $77 · now 3¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
Specialties
147 settled consensus markets · held side won 30% at an average entry of 30¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where ce1lvc9ew66's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Esports — held side won 29% of 139 at an average 29¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 8% of 77)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 32% of 38)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 76% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 7)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.