Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
$115.69
76.3¢ → 81¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dancingmonkey1 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$63.05 | 54% 1217-1040 (2257) |
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 67.8¢ | $278.49 | $336.52 | +$58.03 | 55% 421-346 (767) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 73.6¢ | $519.68 | $232.01 | +$66.34 | 36% 13957-24692 (38649) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.6¢ | $147.73 | $162.68 | -$62.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.7¢ | $53.26 | $69.34 | +$128.43 | |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $63.14 | $62.37 | -$5.39 | 42% 1293-1763 (3056) |
Invested
$1,528.58
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$63.05
Record
54%
1217-1040 (2257)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$278.49
Value
$336.52
PnL
+$58.03
Record
55%
421-346 (767)
Invested
$519.68
Value
$232.01
PnL
+$66.34
Record
36%
13957-24692 (38649)
Both legs:
probability<$100Invested
$63.14
Value
$62.37
PnL
-$5.39
Record
42%
1293-1763 (3056)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.