Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 66¢ · $602 held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$601.78
-$19.46
62.6¢ → 66¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dancingmonkey1 | Yesavg 63¢ | $380.59 | $359.9 | -$20.68 | 54% 1230-1067 (2297) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 42.9¢ | $78.41 | $111.67 | +$33.26 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 42.9¢ | $60 | $88.2 | +$28.2 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 29¢ | $18.41 | $23.47 | +$5.06 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $112.6 | $100 | -$2.29 | 38% 273-442 (715) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $62.25 | $63 | -$2.29 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37¢ | $37 | $37 | -$0 | |
KI KiruaTrading<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 | 56% 248-191 (439) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 32.5¢ | $8.98 | $10.2 | +$1.23 | 42% 5153-7078 (12231) |
Invested
$380.59
Value
$359.9
PnL
-$20.68
Record
54%
1230-1067 (2297)
Invested
$78.41
Value
$111.67
PnL
+$33.26
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$112.6
Value
$100
PnL
-$2.29
Record
38%
273-442 (715)
Both legs:
Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
248-191 (439)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$10.2
PnL
+$1.23
Record
42%
5153-7078 (12231)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.