Consensus PnL -$157K · win rate 98% (281–6, n=287) · PM monthly #348 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-156.6K
Record
281W / 6L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 287 settled
Batting Avg
92.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#121
Source
PM monthly #348
Record (90 d)
260/271 · 96%
Trades
2,364
Markets
438
Volume
$1.5M
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Specialties
240 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 52¢- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 124 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
- College Football
+48 pts
side won 100% of 34 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +49%
- Soccer
+42 pts
side won 97% of 65 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 45%(won 98% of 107)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 100% of 117)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 100% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.