No settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #854 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #854
Record (90 d)
97/154 · 63%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
Specialties
179 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 64¢- NBA
+15 pts
side won 81% of 42 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +7%
- College Football
+4 pts
side won 68% of 28 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +3%
- Other Sports
+9 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 48% of 64 at an average 60¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 47% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 59%(won 53% of 105)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 86% of 56)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.