No settled consensus market yet · was PM monthly #996 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$0
Source
PM monthly #996
Record (90 d)
608/668 · 91%
Trades
0
Markets
0
Volume
$0
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Specialties
1,842 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 78¢- Mentions
+11 pts
side won 94% of 68 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 84% of 247 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +10%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 80% of 544 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: College Football — held side won 43% of 35 at an average 66¢ entry (−23 pts against the price), ROI −20%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 10% of 137)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 34% of 116)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 68% of 216)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 96% of 1373)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.