Consensus PnL $154K · win rate 64% (87–49, n=136) · PM monthly #452 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$154.5K
Record
87W / 49L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 136 settled
Batting Avg
40.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1013
Source
PM monthly #452
Record (90 d)
14/19 · 74%
Trades
477
Markets
136
Volume
$732.6K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?Yes $1.4K · now 73¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?No $55 · now 1¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
130 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 55¢- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 79% of 33 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +17%
- MLB
+14 pts
side won 70% of 66 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 0% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 67% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 72%(won 72% of 93)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.