Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 27¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$1.3K
-$769.65
55.1¢ → 26.8¢
-51% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 49.6¢ | $758.1 | $633.07 | -$14.15 | 35% 14716-26896 (41612) |
 AnjunCTR | Noavg 58.5¢ | $1.3K | $602.5 | -$745.35 | 55% 4888-3950 (8838) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 22.4¢ | $26.9 | $31.38 | +$4.48 | 61% 20602-13057 (33659) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $24.86 | $11.01 | -$13.85 | 42% 5191-7110 (12301) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $2.68 | $3.69 | +$1.02 | 53% 6279-5507 (11786) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.1¢ | $3.37 | $1.57 | -$1.8 | 77% 11126-3391 (14517) |
Invested
$758.1
Value
$633.07
PnL
-$14.15
Record
35%
14716-26896 (41612)
AnjunCTRInvested
$1,347.85
Value
$602.5
PnL
-$745.35
Record
55%
4888-3950 (8838)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$26.9
Value
$31.38
PnL
+$4.48
Record
61%
20602-13057 (33659)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$11.01
PnL
-$13.85
Record
42%
5191-7110 (12301)
Invested
$2.68
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$1.02
Record
53%
6279-5507 (11786)
Invested
$3.37
Value
$1.57
PnL
-$1.8
Record
77%
11126-3391 (14517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.