Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$112.89
68.5¢ → 81¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
104h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL AlmostNoAwareness | Noavg 67¢ | $5.37 | $865.02 | +$204.14 | 64% 117-66 (183) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $831.94 | $847.04 | +$67.8 | 35% 19620-37183 (56803) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.6¢ | $546.08 | $670.66 | +$113.93 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $234.79 | $176.38 | -$46.13 | |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 86.6¢ | $74.78 | $68.77 | -$6.01 | 40% 6647-10049 (16696) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yes | $24.25 | $24.25 | -$68.05 | 52% 164-153 (317) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $25.1 | $7.91 | -$17.19 | 38% 1821-3002 (4823) |
Invested
$5.37
Value
$865.02
PnL
+$204.14
Record
64%
117-66 (183)
Invested
$831.94
Value
$847.04
PnL
+$67.8
Record
35%
19620-37183 (56803)
Both legs:
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$74.78
Value
$68.77
PnL
-$6.01
Record
40%
6647-10049 (16696)
Invested
$24.25
Value
$24.25
PnL
-$68.05
Record
52%
164-153 (317)
Invested
$25.1
Value
$7.91
PnL
-$17.19
Record
38%
1821-3002 (4823)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.