Consensus PnL -$1.5K · win rate 38% (35–58, n=93) · was PM monthly #993 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.5K
Record
35W / 58L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 93 settled
Batting Avg
76.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1538
Source
PM monthly #993
Record (90 d)
35/93 · 38%
Trades
1
Markets
100
Volume
$120.9K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?Yes $489 · now 38¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
93 settled consensus markets · held side won 38% at an average entry of 39¢- Esports
+3 pts
side won 38% of 13 · avg entry 36¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 38% of 52 at an average 41¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 22% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 49%(won 33% of 46)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 58% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 80% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.