Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $316 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$316.14

Combined PnL

$67.26

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 56¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$240.14

Total Shares428

Combined PnL+$30.83

Yes1 trader

Total Value$76

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$36.43

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xdc3E831cad	Noavg 56.5¢	$136.57	$135.39	+$2.45	50% 1781-1809 (3590)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$195.92	$76	+$36.43	36% 13446-23443 (36889)
Debosnys<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$64.2	$61.6	-$2.6	89% 1814-224 (2038)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 15.3¢	$10.83	$39.53	+$28.69	18% 3341-15435 (18776)
Donkov<$100	Noavg 19.7¢	$1.33	$3.62	+$2.28	71% 961-393 (1354)

0xdc3E831cad

Invested

$136.57

Value

$135.39

PnL

+$2.45

Record

50%

1781-1809 (3590)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$195.92

Value

$76

PnL

+$36.43

Record

36%

13446-23443 (36889)

Debosnys<$100

Invested

$64.2

Value

$61.6

PnL

-$2.6

Record

89%

1814-224 (2038)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$10.83

Value

$39.53

PnL

+$28.69

Record

18%

3341-15435 (18776)

Donkov<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$2.28

Record

71%

961-393 (1354)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.0%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$72.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

172.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.