Consensus PnL -$297K · win rate 53% (518–457, n=975) · PM monthly #473 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-296.7K
Record
518W / 457L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 975 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1658
Source
PM monthly #473
Record (90 d)
23/23 · 100%
Trades
810
Markets
1,343
Volume
$4.1M
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Specialties
1,078 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 51¢- College Football
+27 pts
side won 79% of 28 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +39%
- MLB
+5 pts
side won 54% of 155 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +8%
- NHL
+4 pts
side won 54% of 155 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 52% of 402 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 20% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 44%(won 47% of 478)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 56% of 493)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 74% of 77)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.