Consensus PnL -$24K · win rate 67% (8–4, n=12) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-24.1K
Record
8W / 4L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 12 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#910
Source
PM monthly #978
Record (90 d)
7/11 · 64%
Trades
27
Markets
21
Volume
$175.7K
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Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 8 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $18K · now 1¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $13K · now 47¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (57% of 128)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $9.9K · now 8¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (72% of 73)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Yes $7.4K · now 45¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (64% of 28)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $2.9K · now 66¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (43% of 70)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $1.9K · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (93% of 29)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $1.9K · now 37¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (71% of 46)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $1.3K · now 46¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (68% of 136)
Specialties
11 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 67¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x498d2C229B37bF35116281BdDbE484d7e1b6DdD.'s side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Elections — held side won 64% of 11 at an average 67¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 67% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 0% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 100% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.