Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.6K
$1.21
89.3¢ → 90¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Yesavg 89.8¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$2.1 | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 91¢ | $330.59 | $309.45 | -$7.55 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 84.8¢ | $252.5 | $250 | -$0.55 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 90.8¢ | $27.04 | $26.8 | -$0.23 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.4¢ | $6.72 | $14.16 | +$7.44 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
classifiedInvested
$1,036.66
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$2.1
Record
58%
829-603 (1432)
Invested
$330.59
Value
$309.45
PnL
-$7.55
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
IstarothInvested
$252.5
Value
$250
PnL
-$0.55
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Invested
$27.04
Value
$26.8
PnL
-$0.23
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$14.16
PnL
+$7.44
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.