Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (72%) · No at 94¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 72%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

-$781.68

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 94.2¢

+32% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,918

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$540.87

Total Shares3,007

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 72%Yes — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	Noavg 89¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$145.44	48% 7251-7943 (15194)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 94.8¢	$663.6	$662.9	-$0.7	56% 16091-12820 (28911)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 71.5¢	$4.2K	$633.63	+$176.09	45% 2879-3530 (6409)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 23.2¢	$2.1K	$616.53	+$525.9	56% 18368-14297 (32665)
SI SitsToPee	Noavg 1.1¢	$34.4K	$616.41	+$609.25	60% 742-497 (1239)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 53.3¢	$1.9K	$441.55	-$560.15	53% 23051-20286 (43337)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 92.9¢	$932.36	$305.75	-$124.82	50% 2472-2433 (4905)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$94.46	$94.92	+$0.46	17% 1282-6085 (7367)
TH thoodrCTR	Yesavg 95¢	$1.5K	$79.5	$-1.3K	97% 685-24 (709)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 83.4¢	$171.31	$64.03	+$16.24	50% 273-268 (541)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Noavg 96.5¢	$317.05	$57.88	-$1.06	60% 2581-1695 (4276)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$56.64	$57.36	+$0.72	49% 8958-9484 (18442)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$33.12	$35.9	+$5.73	27% 532-1439 (1971)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$34.72	$32.88	-$0.62	67% 805-392 (1197)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 71.7¢	$234.37	$18.96	-$215.41	35% 18725-34748 (53473)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$7	$6.63	+$1.05	59% 3791-2625 (6416)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 97.5¢	$11.88	$0.69	-$11.19	77% 12489-3829 (16318)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$27.62	$0.17	-$3.12	58% 20201-14846 (35047)

Gaditima

Invested

$2,453.19

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$145.44

Record

48%

7251-7943 (15194)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$663.6

Value

$662.9

PnL

-$0.7

Record

56%

16091-12820 (28911)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$4,192.52

Value

$633.63

PnL

+$176.09

Record

45%

2879-3530 (6409)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$2,078.09

Value

$616.53

PnL

+$525.9

Record

56%

18368-14297 (32665)

SitsToPee

Invested

$34,373.49

Value

$616.41

PnL

+$609.25

Record

60%

742-497 (1239)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,942.35

Value

$441.55

PnL

-$560.15

Record

53%

23051-20286 (43337)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$932.36

Value

$305.75

PnL

-$124.82

Record

50%

2472-2433 (4905)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$94.46

Value

$94.92

PnL

+$0.46

Record

17%

1282-6085 (7367)

thoodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$79.5

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

97%

685-24 (709)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$171.31

Value

$64.03

PnL

+$16.24

Record

50%

273-268 (541)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$317.05

Value

$57.88

PnL

-$1.06

Record

60%

2581-1695 (4276)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$56.64

Value

$57.36

PnL

+$0.72

Record

49%

8958-9484 (18442)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$33.12

Value

$35.9

PnL

+$5.73

Record

27%

532-1439 (1971)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100

Invested

$34.72

Value

$32.88

PnL

-$0.62

Record

67%

805-392 (1197)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$234.37

Value

$18.96

PnL

-$215.41

Record

35%

18725-34748 (53473)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$1.05

Record

59%

3791-2625 (6416)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.88

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$11.19

Record

77%

12489-3829 (16318)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.62

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$3.12

Record

58%

20201-14846 (35047)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 18 top traders (72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

76% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.4%

94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.