Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on November 1?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$11.1K
$-1.3K
83¢ → 96¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 77¢ | $6.8K | $5.1K | $-1.6K | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $6.2K | $4.7K | +$293 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 96¢ | $884.16 | $741.12 | -$1.49 | 53% 6657-5851 (12508) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 84¢ | $597.18 | $222.75 | +$46.08 | 59% 2237-1570 (3807) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 91¢ | $176.54 | $161.02 | -$15.52 | 52% 5041-4710 (9751) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 83¢ | $136.95 | $158.4 | +$21.45 | 62% 794-490 (1284) |
Invested
$6,773.68
Value
$5.1K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$6,243.65
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$293
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$884.16
Value
$741.12
PnL
-$1.49
Record
53%
6657-5851 (12508)
Invested
$597.18
Value
$222.75
PnL
+$46.08
Record
59%
2237-1570 (3807)
Invested
$176.54
Value
$161.02
PnL
-$15.52
Record
52%
5041-4710 (9751)
Invested
$136.95
Value
$158.4
PnL
+$21.45
Record
62%
794-490 (1284)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.