Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 31?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$5.1K
$240
80.5¢ → 98¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.8K | +$551.88 | 65% 2415-1284 (3699) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $3.1K | $2.2K | -$299.25 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $35.08 | $22.59 | -$12.63 | 59% 2201-1554 (3755) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.