Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.5K
-$573.86
74.4¢ → 98.2¢
+32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 74.6¢ | $2.7K | $1.7K | $-1.0K | 65% 2354-1269 (3623) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 27.1¢ | $363.46 | $803.37 | +$483.95 | 59% 2166-1522 (3688) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394<$100 | Yesavg 45.9¢ | $12.74 | $7.5 | -$5.24 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 81.6¢ | $9.79 | $3.24 | -$6.55 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $0.06 | $0.78 | +$0.71 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
Invested
$2,710.21
Value
$1.7K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
65%
2354-1269 (3623)
Invested
$363.46
Value
$803.37
PnL
+$483.95
Record
59%
2166-1522 (3688)
Invested
$12.74
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$5.24
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$9.79
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$6.55
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.78
PnL
+$0.71
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.