Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 55¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 4

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$507.31

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 54.9¢

-22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL+$132.48

Yes6 traders

Total Value$452.44

Total Shares1,674

Combined PnL+$374.83

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

109h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Albert 1953	Noavg 67.7¢	$738.14	$902.54	+$164.39	50% 1130-1141 (2271)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 17.1¢	$139.25	$219.67	+$80.42	59% 3768-2614 (6382)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$187.05	$204.55	+$18.06	14% 503-3033 (3536)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.4¢	$153.63	$154.2	+$0.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.7¢	$32.93	$50.35	+$17.5
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$702.83	$173.49	+$48.36	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.8¢	$93.98	$102.63	-$103.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.6¢	$51.32	$70.85	+$151.42
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 8.9¢	$27.78	$130.05	+$159.39	53% 29676-26572 (56248)
CO Contestable-Parfait<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$79.9	$82.75	-$23.2	48% 108-117 (225)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 93¢	$79.05	$70.34	-$8.71	49% 8939-9446 (18385)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$62.05	$44.86	+$147.46	45% 2849-3477 (6326)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$19.56	$40.53	+$20.97	54% 14-12 (26)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yes	$45.95	$11.92	-$15.42	17% 1276-6074 (7350)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$48.4	$5.4	-$18	20% 2639-10442 (13081)

Albert 1953

Invested

$738.14

Value

$902.54

PnL

+$164.39

Record

50%

1130-1141 (2271)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.25

Value

$219.67

PnL

+$80.42

Record

59%

3768-2614 (6382)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$187.05

Value

$204.55

PnL

+$18.06

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

Both legs:

No$153.6382.4¢+$0.56

Yes$32.9317.7¢+$17.5

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$702.83

Value

$173.49

PnL

+$48.36

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

Both legs:

No$93.9875.8¢-$103.07

Yes$51.3219.6¢+$151.42

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$27.78

Value

$130.05

PnL

+$159.39

Record

53%

29676-26572 (56248)

Contestable-Parfait<$100

Invested

$79.9

Value

$82.75

PnL

-$23.2

Record

48%

108-117 (225)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$79.05

Value

$70.34

PnL

-$8.71

Record

49%

8939-9446 (18385)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.05

Value

$44.86

PnL

+$147.46

Record

45%

2849-3477 (6326)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.56

Value

$40.53

PnL

+$20.97

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.95

Value

$11.92

PnL

-$15.42

Record

17%

1276-6074 (7350)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.4

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$18

Record

20%

2639-10442 (13081)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

109h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.8%

54.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$75.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

175.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.