Consensus PnL $172K · win rate 49% (465–476, n=941) · hand-picked wallet · holds 54 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$171.5K
Record
465W / 476L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 941 settled
Batting Avg
59.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1806
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
53,067
Markets
2,069
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
54 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 54 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $3.8K · now 43¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $3.6K · now 91¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 35¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (No)
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No $2.3K · now 60¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.3K · now 9¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.7K · now 14¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 79¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?No $1.1K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
Specialties
1,067 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 48¢- Finance
+26 pts
side won 90% of 321 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +31%
- Economy
+22 pts
side won 73% of 37 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +14%
- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 51% of 240 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 26% of 134 at an average 30¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 16% of 398)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 63% of 152)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 79% of 156)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 96% of 361)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.