Will Steve Scalise be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$47.65

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 99.5¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,743

Combined PnL+$130.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.5

Total Shares3,363

Combined PnL-$83.29

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$57.4	50% 4583-4495 (9078)
Robbb	Noavg 97¢	$908.69	$921.69	+$23	— 1-0 (1)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.3¢	$356.26	$367.97	+$11.71	30% 2638-6194 (8832)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$36.11	$38.58	+$2.47	27% 917-2511 (3428)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 96¢	$28.8	$29.84	+$1.04	19% 58-241 (299)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 47¢	$14.1	$29.84	+$15.74	12% 49-371 (420)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 46¢	$9.2	$19.89	+$10.69	39% 1051-1631 (2682)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$99.99	$18.33	-$81.66	45% 132-162 (294)
JO JordanMooney<$100	Noavg 47¢	$7.99	$16.91	+$8.92	— 9-0 (9)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.8	$0.16	-$1.64	41% 3090-4455 (7545)

balthazar

Invested

$2,240.1

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$57.4

Record

50%

4583-4495 (9078)

Robbb

Invested

$908.69

Value

$921.69

PnL

+$23

Record

—

1-0 (1)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$356.26

Value

$367.97

PnL

+$11.71

Record

30%

2638-6194 (8832)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$36.11

Value

$38.58

PnL

+$2.47

Record

27%

917-2511 (3428)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$1.04

Record

19%

58-241 (299)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$14.1

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$15.74

Record

12%

49-371 (420)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$10.69

Record

39%

1051-1631 (2682)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.99

Value

$18.33

PnL

-$81.66

Record

45%

132-162 (294)

JordanMooney<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$8.92

Record

—

9-0 (9)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.64

Record

41%

3090-4455 (7545)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.