Will Dana White be the next White House Press Secretary?

14 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 98¢ · $58K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$57.9K

Combined PnL

-$744.57

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 98¢

+3% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 31 top traders (45%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$56.8K

Total Shares57,902

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes17 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares50,606

Combined PnL$-1.9K

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on No) and the top 1000 (30 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 56% · 9

Diverging

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 52% · 25

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 30

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV aviato	Noavg 95¢	$12.4K	$12.2K	+$364.93	83% 2592-548 (3140)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 95.3¢	$7.9K	$8.1K	+$217.39	73% 3049-1110 (4159)
TBill1	Noavg 96.8¢	$25.8K	$7.9K	+$89.93	44% 171-220 (391)
CryptoSlon	Noavg 95.7¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	+$155.59	— 11-6 (17)
Lolakis	Noavg 97.9¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$2.5	56% 777-601 (1378)
BE Bet1nthedark	Noavg 94¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	+$169.59	87% 163-25 (188)
Rex416	Noavg 96.5¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	+$42.29	56% 2859-2279 (5138)
WordleAddict	Noavg 94.3¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	+$105.34	60% 1028-697 (1725)
4751346	Noavg 94.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$71.77	72% 1381-537 (1918)
GrokEnjoyer	Noavg 91.3¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$143.38	50% 390-390 (780)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 94¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$69.14	73% 3689-1398 (5087)
clazzy1	Noavg 93¢	$1.0K	$979.5	+$49.5	66% 543-281 (824)
Robbb	Noavg 97.5¢	$700.62	$323.24	+$1.5	78% 2521-699 (3220)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$180.15	$217.88	+$37.73	57% 883-673 (1556)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 95.5¢	$186.89	$183.06	+$4.61	47% 134-154 (288)
RA RadioCCODCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$190.61	$177.07	-$13.54	36% 105-187 (292)
0X 0x8260615ef0604c26712870c4A803936fea38A14b-1775226049986CTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$300	$109.8	-$190.2	42% 14-19 (33)
CarCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$6.0K	$107.63	+$38.88	66% 4490-2319 (6809)
LlamaEnjoyerCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$275.2	$102.5	-$172.7	84% 2602-497 (3099)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$7.5K	$90.67	+$28.64	41% 21-30 (51)
VA VanchalkensteinCTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$204.84	$48.2	-$156.64	52% 335-308 (643)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$7.8K	$43.16	$-1.4K	39% 241-375 (616)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 5.8¢	$116	$41	-$75	36% 414-725 (1139)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$52.8	$26.84	-$25.96	49% 22834-23666 (46500)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.8	$25.29	+$22.38	14% 9500-60813 (70313)

aviato

Invested

$12,439.79

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$364.93

Record

83%

2592-548 (3140)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$7,909.13

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$217.39

Record

73%

3049-1110 (4159)

TBill1

Invested

$25,755.05

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$89.93

Record

44%

171-220 (391)

CryptoSlon

Invested

$7,002.96

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$155.59

Record

—

11-6 (17)

Lolakis

Invested

$4,894.99

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

777-601 (1378)

Bet1nthedark

Invested

$4,358.95

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$169.59

Record

87%

163-25 (188)

Rex416

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$42.29

Record

56%

2859-2279 (5138)

WordleAddict

Invested

$2,886.13

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$105.34

Record

60%

1028-697 (1725)

4751346

Invested

$1,914.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$71.77

Record

72%

1381-537 (1918)

GrokEnjoyer

Invested

$2,018.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$143.38

Record

50%

390-390 (780)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$1,645.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$69.14

Record

73%

3689-1398 (5087)

clazzy1

Invested

$1,000

Value

$979.5

PnL

+$49.5

Record

66%

543-281 (824)

Robbb

Invested

$700.62

Value

$323.24

PnL

+$1.5

Record

78%

2521-699 (3220)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.15

Value

$217.88

PnL

+$37.73

Record

57%

883-673 (1556)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$186.89

Value

$183.06

PnL

+$4.61

Record

47%

134-154 (288)

RadioCCODCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.61

Value

$177.07

PnL

-$13.54

Record

36%

105-187 (292)

0x8260615ef0604c26712870c4A803936fea38A14b-1775226049986CTR

Yes

Invested

$300

Value

$109.8

PnL

-$190.2

Record

42%

14-19 (33)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,049.99

Value

$107.63

PnL

+$38.88

Record

66%

4490-2319 (6809)

LlamaEnjoyerCTR

Yes

Invested

$275.2

Value

$102.5

PnL

-$172.7

Record

84%

2602-497 (3099)

hugecaulkCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,477.05

Value

$90.67

PnL

+$28.64

Record

41%

21-30 (51)

VanchalkensteinCTR

Yes

Invested

$204.84

Value

$48.2

PnL

-$156.64

Record

52%

335-308 (643)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,802.46

Value

$43.16

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

39%

241-375 (616)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$41

PnL

-$75

Record

36%

414-725 (1139)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.8

Value

$26.84

PnL

-$25.96

Record

49%

22834-23666 (46500)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$25.29

PnL

+$22.38

Record

14%

9500-60813 (70313)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 31 top traders (45%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on No) and the top 1000 (30 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 56% · 9

Diverging

sharpNo 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 52% · 25

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 30

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.