Consensus PnL $59K · win rate 48% (10–11, n=21) · PM monthly #883 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$59.5K
Record
10W / 11L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 21 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2162
Source
PM monthly #883
Record (90 d)
1/1 · 100%
Trades
40
Markets
29
Volume
$13.2K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $472 · now 36¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (78% of 51)
Specialties
14 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 51¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x8260615ef0604c26712870c4A803936fea38A14b-1775226049986's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 33% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 75% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 100% of 5)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.