Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 95¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$21.0K
-$298.4
91.5¢ → 94.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $18.8K | $18.6K | -$190.85 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$6.22 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $619.68 | $711.4 | +$91.73 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $846.57 | $640.5 | -$206.07 | 31% 93-209 (302) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.31 | $0.89 | +$0.57 | 52% 2726-2553 (5279) |
Invested
$18,755.65
Value
$18.6K
PnL
-$190.85
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$1,053.84
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$6.22
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
Invested
$619.68
Value
$711.4
PnL
+$91.73
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
Invested
$846.57
Value
$640.5
PnL
-$206.07
Record
31%
93-209 (302)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.89
PnL
+$0.57
Record
52%
2726-2553 (5279)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.