Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 82¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$22.3K
-$796.15
75.1¢ → 82¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $19.7K | $18.0K | $-1.7K | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
 justdance | Noavg 61.5¢ | $2.5K | $3.3K | +$840.07 | 52% 2707-2540 (5247) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $844.9 | $869.75 | +$24.85 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $256.71 | $126.11 | +$23.27 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
 Facaie<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $8.25 | +$3.15 | 92% 1248-105 (1353) |
Invested
$19,681.54
Value
$18.0K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
justdanceInvested
$2,461.84
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$840.07
Record
52%
2707-2540 (5247)
Invested
$844.9
Value
$869.75
PnL
+$24.85
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$256.71
Value
$126.11
PnL
+$23.27
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Facaie<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$3.15
Record
92%
1248-105 (1353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.