Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 29?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 58¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$13.3K
$36.5
92.8¢ → 57.8¢
-38% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $11.5K | $10.5K | $-1.1K | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 92.6¢ | $10.5K | $6.6K | $-4.0K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $1.0K | $3.9K | +$2.9K | |
 Facaie | Noavg 92.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$143.44 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $745.41 | $927.22 | +$181.81 | 31% 90-196 (286) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $523.78 | $229.38 | -$1.96 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $17.33 | $17.42 | +$0.09 | 63% 758-439 (1197) |
Invested
$11,548.42
Value
$10.5K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Both legs:
FacaieInvested
$1,795.08
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$143.44
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
Invested
$745.41
Value
$927.22
PnL
+$181.81
Record
31%
90-196 (286)
Invested
$523.78
Value
$229.38
PnL
-$1.96
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
Invested
$17.33
Value
$17.42
PnL
+$0.09
Record
63%
758-439 (1197)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.