Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$21.7K
$1.1K
89.8¢ → 97.8¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $19.5K | $20.8K | +$1.2K | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 96¢ | $413.53 | $389.21 | -$24.32 | 59% 2205-1559 (3764) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $439.63 | $272.03 | -$167.61 | 63% 782-461 (1243) |
19 196874353278ARB<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $642.57 | $239.39 | -$343.06 | 43% 181-238 (419) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97.1¢ | $126.57 | $127.45 | +$0.88 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $382.92 | $111.94 | -$343.94 | |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $37.92 | $39.1 | +$1.18 | 86% 2131-337 (2468) |
Invested
$19,542.43
Value
$20.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
Invested
$413.53
Value
$389.21
PnL
-$24.32
Record
59%
2205-1559 (3764)
Invested
$439.63
Value
$272.03
PnL
-$167.61
Record
63%
782-461 (1243)
Invested
$642.57
Value
$239.39
PnL
-$343.06
Record
43%
181-238 (419)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.92
Value
$39.1
PnL
+$1.18
Record
86%
2131-337 (2468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.