Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sport Lisboa e Benfica (50%) · Sport Lisboa e Benfica at 89¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 11

FK Austria Wien11¢Sport Lisboa e Benfica89¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Consensus Traders

Sport Lisboa e Benfica 50%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$561.15

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 89.2¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FK Austria Wien11%

Sport Lisboa e Benfica89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sport Lisboa e Benfica4 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares13,773

Combined PnL+$593.2

FK Austria Wien4 traders

Total Value$143.77

Total Shares1,863

Combined PnL-$32.05

Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 50%FK Austria Wien — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFK Austria Wien 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFK Austria Wien 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sport Lisboa e Benfica 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 92.6¢	$11.7K	$12.1K	+$348.44	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 71¢	$710	$953	+$243	96% 53-2 (55)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 8.6¢	$72.6	$92.82	+$20.22	12% 17-121 (138)
SE sentrio<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 93.1¢	$71.02	$72.69	+$1.68	34% 233-457 (690)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 95.1¢	$49.91	$49.99	+$0.08	41% 3084-4451 (7535)
JA JabJabichCTR	FK Austria Wienavg 10¢	$100	$49.81	-$50.19	0% 0-35 (35)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 14¢	$1.61	$0.57	-$1.04	— 2-1 (3)
WH whosayCTR<$100	FK Austria Wienavg 14¢	$1.61	$0.57	-$1.04	67% 16-8 (24)

Flaznorp

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$11,732.76

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$348.44

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$710

Value

$953

PnL

+$243

Record

96%

53-2 (55)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$72.6

Value

$92.82

PnL

+$20.22

Record

12%

17-121 (138)

sentrio<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$71.02

Value

$72.69

PnL

+$1.68

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Invested

$49.91

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

3084-4451 (7535)

JabJabichCTR

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$100

Value

$49.81

PnL

-$50.19

Record

0-35 (35)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$1.61

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$1.04

Record

—

2-1 (3)

whosayCTR<$100

FK Austria Wien

Invested

$1.61

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$1.04

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

Research grade

NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sport Lisboa e Benfica

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFK Austria Wien 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFK Austria Wien 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sport Lisboa e Benfica 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sport Lisboa e Benfica wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.