Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 6.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 76¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$430.82

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 76.1¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,565

Combined PnL-$405.25

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares6,312

Combined PnL+$836.07

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 83.6¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$326.57	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
└ Under leg	Underavg 83.6¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$436.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 13.8¢	$674.05	$1.4K	+$763.28
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 83.2¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$204.11	56% 1553-1230 (2783)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 15¢	$579.2	$1.1K	+$557.34	38% 137-223 (360)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 82.1¢	$920.38	$802.6	-$117.78	55% 715-580 (1295)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 86.4¢	$518.18	$541.34	+$23.16	45% 267-322 (589)
└ Under leg	Underavg 86.4¢	$409.16	$360.15	-$49.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 14.4¢	$109.02	$181.19	+$72.17
XT xtxpleasecallme	Underavg 84.2¢	$508.32	$425.64	-$82.68	41% 3150-4506 (7656)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 10.1¢	$134.7	$320	+$185.3	31% 388-857 (1245)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 16.4¢	$154.46	$223.62	+$69.16	31% 393-875 (1268)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$16.55	$30.52	+$13.97	23% 36-119 (155)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$6.97	$14.01	+$7.04	30% 384-878 (1262)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 29.3¢	$3.41	$3.97	+$0.56	24% 112-350 (462)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 84¢	$4.2	$3.53	-$0.68	67% 1654-809 (2463)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 14¢	$1.56	$3.28	+$1.72	57% 4039-3053 (7092)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 9.9¢	$0.5	$1.48	+$0.98	28% 162-411 (573)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,459.43

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$326.57

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

Both legs:

Under$2,785.3883.6¢-$436.71

Over$674.0513.8¢+$763.28

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,440.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$204.11

Record

56%

1553-1230 (2783)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$579.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$557.34

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$920.38

Value

$802.6

PnL

-$117.78

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$518.18

Value

$541.34

PnL

+$23.16

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

Both legs:

Under$409.1686.4¢-$49.01

Over$109.0214.4¢+$72.17

xtxpleasecallme

Under

Invested

$508.32

Value

$425.64

PnL

-$82.68

Record

41%

3150-4506 (7656)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$134.7

Value

$320

PnL

+$185.3

Record

31%

388-857 (1245)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$154.46

Value

$223.62

PnL

+$69.16

Record

31%

393-875 (1268)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.55

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$13.97

Record

23%

36-119 (155)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.97

Value

$14.01

PnL

+$7.04

Record

30%

384-878 (1262)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.56

Record

24%

112-350 (462)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.68

Record

67%

1654-809 (2463)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.56

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$1.72

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.5

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.98

Record

28%

162-411 (573)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-34 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.0%

76.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.