Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: 1st Half O/U 3.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 11

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$244.8

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,531

Combined PnL+$16.27

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.43

Total Shares4,866

Combined PnL-$261.07

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 84.2¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$521.2	61% 225-143 (368)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 92.8¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$371.55	55% 715-580 (1295)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.72	54% 88-75 (163)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 97.6¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$145.62	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 88¢	$66.99	$76.04	+$9.06	45% 267-323 (590)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 89¢	$20	$22.46	+$2.46	31% 221-482 (703)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR	Overavg 8.9¢	$230.83	$1.3	-$229.53	67% 18-9 (27)
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100	Overavg 1.4¢	$32.68	$1.13	-$31.54	1% 4-421 (425)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$2,793.08

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$521.2

Record

61%

225-143 (368)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,993.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$371.55

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$1,435.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.72

Record

54%

88-75 (163)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,263.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$145.62

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$66.99

Value

$76.04

PnL

+$9.06

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$22.46

PnL

+$2.46

Record

31%

221-482 (703)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9CTR

Over

Invested

$230.83

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$229.53

Record

67%

18-9 (27)

IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.68

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$31.54

Record

4-421 (425)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.