Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Juventus FC vs. OL Lyonnes: 1st Half O/U 2.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$471.92

Total Shares1,383

Combined PnL+$55.51

Under2 traders

Total Value$14.6

Total Shares1,736

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 66.4¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$487.1	51% 1857-1809 (3666)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.86
└ Over leg	Overavg 8.1¢	$156.15	$623.39	+$467.23
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 68¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$27.84	57% 4039-3053 (7092)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$850	$845.52	-$4.48
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.8¢	$369.06	$401.39	+$32.32
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 69.1¢	$186.19	$456.99	+$270.8	55% 715-580 (1295)
└ Over leg	Overavg 5¢	$50	$323.59	+$273.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.1¢	$136.19	$133.4	-$2.79
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9	Overavg 34¢	$393.86	$375.19	-$18.68	67% 18-9 (27)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 22¢	$274.12	$343.83	+$69.71	45% 267-322 (589)
└ Over leg	Overavg 22¢	$141.03	$207.43	+$66.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 66¢	$133.1	$136.41	+$3.31
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 5¢	$6.98	$45.2	+$38.22	38% 137-223 (360)
E4 e46m3<$100	Overavg 31¢	$11.17	$36.01	+$24.84	43% 2563-3356 (5919)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 9.2¢	$4.4	$15.52	+$11.12	30% 383-882 (1265)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 71.7¢	$13.6	$13.74	+$0.14	38% 355-588 (943)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 69.5¢	$1.2K	$0.86	$-1.2K	61% 225-143 (368)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,229.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$487.1

Record

51%

1857-1809 (3666)

Both legs:

Under$1,073.6166.4¢+$19.86

Over$156.158.1¢+$467.23

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,219.06

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$27.84

Record

57%

4039-3053 (7092)

Both legs:

Under$85068¢-$4.48

Over$369.0629.8¢+$32.32

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$186.19

Value

$456.99

PnL

+$270.8

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

Both legs:

Over$505¢+$273.59

Under$136.1969.1¢-$2.79

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Over

Invested

$393.86

Value

$375.19

PnL

-$18.68

Record

67%

18-9 (27)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$274.12

Value

$343.83

PnL

+$69.71

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

Both legs:

Invested

$6.98

Value

$45.2

PnL

+$38.22

Record

38%

137-223 (360)

e46m3<$100

Over

Invested

$11.17

Value

$36.01

PnL

+$24.84

Record

43%

2563-3356 (5919)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

$15.52

PnL

+$11.12

Record

30%

383-882 (1265)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.6

Value

$13.74

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

355-588 (943)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$1,196.83

Value

$0.86

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

61%

225-143 (368)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.