FC Barcelona vs. Arsenal WFC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (85%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 85%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 100¢

+89% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,415

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Over2 traders

Total Value$8.39

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$4.75

Under — 85%Over — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 50.6¢	$1.5K	$3.0K	+$1.5K	56% 4502-3474 (7976)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$291.24	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 54¢	$253.23	$469.1	+$215.86	61% 234-149 (383)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 42¢	$110.74	$227.47	+$116.74	36% 209-370 (579)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$159.85	$159.93	+$0.08	99% 148-2 (150)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$115.24	$116.34	+$1.11	98% 250-4 (254)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$42.67	$58.68	+$16.01	33% 539-1115 (1654)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 45¢	$14.5	$26.99	+$12.49	32% 542-1133 (1675)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 57.3¢	$25.03	$15.99	+$5.7	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 15.5¢	$16.47	$8.38	+$1.34	34% 564-1115 (1679)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.5	$5.81	+$3.31	41% 562-806 (1368)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$5	+$2.85	33% 320-650 (970)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Overavg 57.5¢	$6.1	$0.01	-$6.09	31% 54-120 (174)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,496.35

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

56%

4502-3474 (7976)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,077.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$291.24

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$253.23

Value

$469.1

PnL

+$215.86

Record

61%

234-149 (383)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$110.74

Value

$227.47

PnL

+$116.74

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$159.85

Value

$159.93

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

148-2 (150)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$115.24

Value

$116.34

PnL

+$1.11

Record

98%

250-4 (254)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$42.67

Value

$58.68

PnL

+$16.01

Record

33%

539-1115 (1654)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$14.5

Value

$26.99

PnL

+$12.49

Record

32%

542-1133 (1675)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$25.03

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$5.7

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.47

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$1.34

Record

34%

564-1115 (1679)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$3.31

Record

41%

562-806 (1368)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

PnL

+$2.85

Record

33%

320-650 (970)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.1

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.09

Record

31%

54-120 (174)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.