Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Charleston Battery vs. Louisville City FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 36¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$74.36

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 36¢

-25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,185

Combined PnL+$79.3

Over2 traders

Total Value$214.19

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$4.94

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$52.12	59% 508-349 (857)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$992.5	$1.0K	+$35.72	47% 985-1122 (2107)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 51.6¢	$355.74	$372.97	+$17.23	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.6¢	$267.82	$282.99	+$15.17
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.5¢	$87.92	$89.98	+$2.06
DA DanielsDixonCTR	Underavg 49¢	$244.99	$239.99	-$5	26% 22-64 (86)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 48.4¢	$207.61	$214.24	+$6.63	55% 547-442 (989)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$109.45	$113	+$3.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$98.16	$101.24	+$3.08
BI biying99999CTR	Underavg 47¢	$181.02	$192.5	+$11.48	36% 118-207 (325)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Overavg 50¢	$194.35	$186.57	-$7.77	53% 100-87 (187)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$91	$87.36	-$3.64	68% 136-63 (199)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$45.5	$43.68	-$1.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$45.5	$43.68	-$1.82
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$69	$53.44	-$15.56	36% 278-498 (776)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 51¢	$24.79	$27.62	+$2.83	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$8.52	$9.07	+$0.54	46% 316-377 (693)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$1,034.95

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$52.12

Record

59%

508-349 (857)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$992.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$35.72

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$355.74

Value

$372.97

PnL

+$17.23

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Both legs:

Over$267.8251.6¢+$15.17

Under$87.9244.5¢+$2.06

DanielsDixonCTR

Under

Invested

$244.99

Value

$239.99

PnL

-$5

Record

26%

22-64 (86)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$207.61

Value

$214.24

PnL

+$6.63

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

Both legs:

Under$109.4548.4¢+$3.55

Over$98.1648.5¢+$3.08

biying99999CTR

Under

Invested

$181.02

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$11.48

Record

36%

118-207 (325)

lukibazdonauki754

Over

Invested

$194.35

Value

$186.57

PnL

-$7.77

Record

53%

100-87 (187)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$91

Value

$87.36

PnL

-$3.64

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

Both legs:

Over$45.550¢-$1.82

Under$45.550¢-$1.82

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69

Value

$53.44

PnL

-$15.56

Record

36%

278-498 (776)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$24.79

Value

$27.62

PnL

+$2.83

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.52

Value

$9.07

PnL

+$0.54

Record

46%

316-377 (693)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.