US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (79%) · Yes at 95¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 7

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 79%

Total Value

$26.2K

Combined PnL

$39.86

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 94.5¢

+4% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$25.4K

Total Shares27,215

Combined PnL+$542.52

No4 traders

Total Value$792.91

Total Shares13,837

Combined PnL-$502.66

Yes — 79%No — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lolakis	Yesavg 91.6¢	$8.9K	$5.8K	+$130.3	58% 724-525 (1249)
Dragontree	Yesavg 90¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$100	59% 1298-914 (2212)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Yesavg 91¢	$1.0K	$4.6K	+$75	63% 24-14 (38)
Car	Yesavg 90.7¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	+$73.62	67% 4314-2146 (6460)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 89.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$75.26	40% 6551-9831 (16382)
StarMaster	Yesavg 90.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$46.25	53% 1929-1707 (3636)
theta-thunberg	Yes	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	56% 442-346 (788)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 89.6¢	$940	$930	-$10	56% 16369-13116 (29485)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 91.5¢	$732	$744	+$4	73% 3014-1100 (4114)
32 328.400.fund	Yesavg 91.3¢	$332.12	$623.86	+$8.99	58% 38-28 (66)
88 881112	Yesavg 88¢	$450.11	$473.66	+$23.56	36% 591-1046 (1637)
donubeCTR	Noavg 10.4¢	$11.3K	$391.91	-$383.34	61% 878-557 (1435)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 7.6¢	$465.73	$365.73	-$100	45% 17-21 (38)
JE Jest55	Yesavg 88.3¢	$178.01	$188.39	+$10.38	76% 1120-351 (1471)
arjennnnn<$100	Yesavg 94.3¢	$94.8	$93.45	-$1.35	70% 847-363 (1210)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$68.04	$71.1	+$2.29	77% 12711-3879 (16590)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 91.2¢	$188.7	$68.13	+$4.22	58% 21302-15462 (36764)
classifiedCTR<$100	Noavg 9.6¢	$32.18	$18.46	-$13.72	57% 860-647 (1507)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$22.41	$16.81	-$5.6	56% 18829-14993 (33822)

Lolakis

Yes

Invested

$8,920.57

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$130.3

Record

58%

724-525 (1249)

Dragontree

Yes

Invested

$4,500

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$100

Record

59%

1298-914 (2212)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Yes

Invested

$1,002.01

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$75

Record

63%

24-14 (38)

Car

Yes

Invested

$2,781.91

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$73.62

Record

67%

4314-2146 (6460)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$2,001.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$75.26

Record

40%

6551-9831 (16382)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$1,135.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$46.25

Record

53%

1929-1707 (3636)

theta-thunberg

Yes

Invested

$1,150.29

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

442-346 (788)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$940

Value

$930

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

16369-13116 (29485)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$732

Value

$744

PnL

+$4

Record

73%

3014-1100 (4114)

328.400.fund

Yes

Invested

$332.12

Value

$623.86

PnL

+$8.99

Record

58%

38-28 (66)

881112

Yes

Invested

$450.11

Value

$473.66

PnL

+$23.56

Record

36%

591-1046 (1637)

donubeCTR

Invested

$11,272.05

Value

$391.91

PnL

-$383.34

Record

61%

878-557 (1435)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$465.73

Value

$365.73

PnL

-$100

Record

45%

17-21 (38)

Jest55

Yes

Invested

$178.01

Value

$188.39

PnL

+$10.38

Record

76%

1120-351 (1471)

arjennnnn<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.8

Value

$93.45

PnL

-$1.35

Record

70%

847-363 (1210)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.04

Value

$71.1

PnL

+$2.29

Record

77%

12711-3879 (16590)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$188.7

Value

$68.13

PnL

+$4.22

Record

58%

21302-15462 (36764)

classifiedCTR<$100

Invested

$32.18

Value

$18.46

PnL

-$13.72

Record

57%

860-647 (1507)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$22.41

Value

$16.81

PnL

-$5.6

Record

56%

18829-14993 (33822)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 95%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 19 top traders (79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 71% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.