US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?

14 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 96¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 6

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 96¢

+6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares28,328

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
classified	Yesavg 90.1¢	$22.4K	$19.2K	+$1.2K	57% 856-643 (1499)
88 881112	Yesavg 94¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$17.6	36% 585-1035 (1620)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 90.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$69.6	56% 18306-14226 (32532)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 91.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$42.35	41% 6281-9214 (15495)
JE Jest55	Yesavg 91.1¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	+$97.81	75% 1045-343 (1388)
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 91.6¢	$619.92	$611.37	-$8.55	17% 1254-6014 (7268)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 90.4¢	$400.51	$418.61	+$18.1	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
morito181	Yesavg 91.1¢	$335.12	$321.55	+$16.34	61% 862-554 (1416)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 94.8¢	$274.85	$274.91	+$0.06	90% 4744-556 (5300)
SP SPLPB	Yesavg 90.7¢	$252.9	$251.13	-$1.77	24% 759-2372 (3131)
Istaroth	Yesavg 91¢	$111.12	$109.23	-$0.88	15% 498-2922 (3420)
RA rainbowlilies	Yesavg 92.1¢	$102.42	$105.12	+$2.7	40% 2752-4114 (6866)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 92.6¢	$9.26	$9.48	+$0.22	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 96.2¢	$7.89	$7.77	-$0.11	58% 19680-14468 (34148)

classified

Yes

Invested

$22,439.27

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

57%

856-643 (1499)

881112

Yes

Invested

$2,068

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$17.6

Record

36%

585-1035 (1620)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$1,348.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$69.6

Record

56%

18306-14226 (32532)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$1,405.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$42.35

Record

41%

6281-9214 (15495)

Jest55

Yes

Invested

$2,004

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$97.81

Record

75%

1045-343 (1388)

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$619.92

Value

$611.37

PnL

-$8.55

Record

17%

1254-6014 (7268)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$400.51

Value

$418.61

PnL

+$18.1

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$335.12

Value

$321.55

PnL

+$16.34

Record

61%

862-554 (1416)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$274.85

Value

$274.91

PnL

+$0.06

Record

90%

4744-556 (5300)

SPLPB

Yes

Invested

$252.9

Value

$251.13

PnL

-$1.77

Record

24%

759-2372 (3131)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$111.12

Value

$109.23

PnL

-$0.88

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

rainbowlilies

Yes

Invested

$102.42

Value

$105.12

PnL

+$2.7

Record

40%

2752-4114 (6866)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.26

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$0.22

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.89

Value

$7.77

PnL

-$0.11

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 14 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.