Consensus PnL $206K · win rate 40% (67–102, n=169) · PM monthly #187 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$205.7K
Record
67W / 102L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 169 settled
Batting Avg
30.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2409
Source
PM monthly #187
Record (90 d)
12/22 · 55%
Trades
627
Markets
264
Volume
$48.8M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 12 on the consensus side (75%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $233K · now 77¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (82% of 148)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $80K · now 56¢with the consensus (63% of 56)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $5.8K · now 73¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (70% of 56)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $4 · now 84¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (55% of 53)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $3 · now 75¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (71% of 148)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $3 · now 68¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (61% of 158)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?No $2 · now 75¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2 · now 38¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
170 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 52¢- Soccer
+19 pts
side won 63% of 24 · avg entry 44¢
ROI −2%
- NHL
+12 pts
side won 61% of 18 · avg entry 49¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 31% of 13 at an average 54¢ entry (−24 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 16% of 32)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 43% of 46)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 60% of 52)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 73% of 40)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.